Landmark Judgment Could Give These Stocks a Boost
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A federal judge in Brooklyn, New York, has ruled that the morning-after pill (levonorgestrel) used as an emergency contraceptive will now be available over the counter with no age restrictions.
Judge Edward Korman’s ruling effectively overturned a previous decision by the Secretary of Health and Human Services, as it was considered to be "arbitrary, capricious, and unreasonable" by Korman. The previous decision urged the FDA to reject a petition by Teva Pharmaceutical (NYSE: TEVA) to allow the over the counter sale of its Plan B and Plan B One Step without restrictions.
As a result, the emergency contraceptive will now be more readily available in pharmacies and drug stores to women and girls of all ages, without the need for prescription.
Two major contenders
While the move is a net positive for Teva, the company’s exclusivity on the drug expired in July 2012, and thus, the profit it can make on selling this drug over the counter are going to be limited.
According to IMS Health data, the company recorded revenue of $88 million in the U.S. from Plan B One Step for the twelve months ending May 31, 2012. This is not bad even for a company of Teva’s size which has a market capitalization of $36.7 billion.
The company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.3, and even though Plan B One Step is not the most important drug in Teva’s portfolio, it certainly is one of them. Teva welcomed the decision, but did not mention how much impact it sees on the sales of the now over the counter drug.
While the oral contraceptives market is highly competitive and fragmented, the competition in the emergency contraceptive market is now starting to heat up. Teva’s biggest generic competitor in this space is Actavis, which received FDA approval for its Next Choice One Dose in July 2012.
Even though the $88 million market is a good benchmark, it is not a sacrosanct figure. What happens with the launch of generic drugs is that the overall size of the market is increased as well. Actavis stands to gain the most from the move as it creates a new market for its generic drug by pricing it at a discount to Teva’s product, which is priced at $50.
Meanwhile, the company continues to do well with its portfolio of more than 190 pharmaceutical product families. Priced at a forward earnings multiple of less than 11, the stock is finding new investors.
Others are exiting the space
Perrigo also has a generic version of Teva’s pill that is sold under the name Levonorgestrel. While the company’s stock is priced attractively at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18 and attracts favorable ratings from brokerage houses, it has set a strategic focus on growing its consumer healthcare business.
The negative is that this focus comes at the cost of the generic drug business, which saw an 8.2% decline in revenue in the most recent quarter. The business accounts for just 18.5% of its overall revenue now. As a result, this may not be a good stock if one wishes to play the generics card.
Overall, the decision by Korman looks promising and the justification offered for the same looks too strong to be refuted. As such, it remains unlikely that the decision will be challenged even though the Justice Department, which is defending the administration's actions in court, is entitled to do so. The decision expands the reach of the pill to the below 17 years age-market and this should help these companies bring in more revenue.
Jacob Wolinsky has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Is this post wrong? Click here. Think you can do better? Join us and write your own!