Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (ADR)

• Banking in Buenos Aires? Buyer Beware

  By Jeremy Worthington - May 14, 2013 | Tickers: BMA, BFR, GGAL

  Argentina has gone through many cycles of blockbuster economic growth and spectacular economic collapse, and now the country is facing renewed economic trouble under the government of President Cristina Kirchner. Argentine stocks traded in foreign markets have been very volatile and are headed down. The biggest Argentine financial stock by market capitalization is Banco Macro (NYSE: BMA), followed by BBVA Banco Frances (NYSE: BFR), which is a division of the more »

• Banking in Buenos Aires? Buyer Beware

  By Jeremy Worthington - May 12, 2013 | Tickers: BMA, BFR, GGAL

  Argentina has gone through many cycles of blockbuster economic growth and spectacular economic collapse. The country is facing renewed economic trouble under the government of President Cristina Kirchner. Argentine stocks traded in foreign markets have been very volatile recently, with a mostly downward trajectory. The biggest financial stock by market capitalization is Banco Macro (NYSE: BMA) followed by BBVA Banco Frances (NYSE: BFR) , which is a division of Spanish bank more »

• How Could A Technical Default Impact Valuations?

  By Damian Illia - April 8, 2013 | Tickers: BMA, BFR, GGAL

  Argentina is in a complicated situation. The country’s officials have repeated that Argentina will still seek to pay its debt abroad if the U.S. court appeals its proposal to restart a bond swap for the holdout creditors. However, this could have some intricate negative developments. The cost to insure against Argentina’s debt default has soared to record levels as five-year CDS (credit default swaps) are trading at more »

• How Could A Technical Default Impact Valuations?

  By Damian Illia - April 4, 2013 | Tickers: BMA, BFR, GGAL

  Argentina is in a complicated situation. The country’s officials have repeated that Argentina will still seek to pay its debt abroad if the US court appeals its proposal to restart a bond swap for the holdout creditors. However, this could have some intricate negative developments. The cost to insure against Argentina’s debt default has soared to record levels as five-year CDS (credit default swaps) are trading at 3754 more »

• The Pari Passu Bet

  By Federico Zaldua - February 28, 2013 | Tickers: BMA, BFR, GGAL

  Yesterday, February 27th, we added a new chapter in the "Pari Passu" saga between the Argentinean government and the holdouts from the 2005 and 2010 defaulted debt exchanges. The New York Court of Appeals heard the arguments given by Argentina and the holdouts. We should have a final resolution in a few days.  

  Some Recent History on the Saga.

  On November 29, 2012, a last-minute stay order from the New more »

• Argentinean Banks On The Watch

  By Federico Zaldua - February 19, 2013 | Tickers: BMA, BFR, GGAL

  On February 27th we shall have a new chapter of the Pari Passu saga between the Argentinean Government and the Holdouts from the 2005 and 2010 defaulted debt exchanges.  On November 29th 2012, a last minute stay order from the New York Court Of Appeals stopped what was surely going to be a technical sovereign default. The judge Thomas Griesa had ordered Argentina to fully pay the $1.3 billion more »

• Time To Take Profits

  By Federico Zaldua - December 24, 2012 | Tickers: BMA, BFR, GGAL

  On Dec. 5, I wrote an article called “3 Banks With Huge Upside Potential.” I recommended going long on three Argentinean banking stocks: Banco Macro (NYSE: BMA), Grupo Financiero Galicia (NASDAQ: GGAL) and Banco Frances (NYSE: BFR). During the last two weeks, along with the the S&P 500 (which soared 2.5%), this three stocks had tremendous returns. Not only did the general market help push these three Argentinean more »

• 3 Banks With Huge Upside Potential

  By Federico Zaldua - December 5, 2012 | Tickers: BMA, BFR, GGAL

  Given the Argentine government's anti-market attitude and a tough sentence at a NY court, Argentina almost falls into a new default. The ruling mentioned above, ordered Argentina to pay 100% of what was owed to hold outs from its debt restructuring. That should not have been a problem for current bondholders but the judge was asking Argentina to deposit those funds into an escrow account by Dec. 15. Otherwise more »

• Three Ways To Play A Euro Break Up

  By Federico Zaldua - December 3, 2012 | Tickers: GREK, GOFPY.PK, GGAL, NBG

  Greece is currently going through a crisis that is producing a deep depression: unemployment is at 25%, GDP contracted by 6% in 2012, and debt to GDP stands at 170%. The natural way out of this kind of crisis is a nominal currency depreciation. Being in the Eurozone, Greece can not manage its own monetary policy, and thus it can not depreciate unless the country drops the Euro. Today a more »

• What if Greece Exits the Euro?

  By Federico Zaldua - November 22, 2012 | Tickers: GREK, GOFPY.PK, GGAL, NBG

  Greece is going through the typical current account crisis that used to be usual in Emerging Markets (EM) when they pegged their currencies to foreign ones. When you peg your currency, you lose monetary policy control and the ability to gain competitiveness through nominal depreciation. As a result, from time to time, you get an ugly recession going. To be exact, Greece is not going through a common recession more »

• Argentina: Value Trap or Long Term Opportunity?

  By Federico Zaldua - November 12, 2012 | Tickers: GGAL, TEO

  Will Argentina Become Venezuela?

  I don’t think so (yet) although a mix of: 1) FX Exchange Controls (since official exchange rate is largely overvalued), 2) this year's government nationalization of YPF 3) doubtful official inflation statistics (true inflation rate is running around +20%) and above all 4) a remarkably anti-market rhetoric make me question whether every security that looks awfully cheap is a potential value trap or an more »

• Argentina: Where Risks and Opportunities Abound

  By Andrés Cardenal - November 2, 2012 | Tickers: BMA, XOM, GGAL, PBR, YPF

  Corporate CEOs, bankers, public functionaries, renowned economists and financial advisors, many of the most influential people in the Argentinean financial markets met to discuss the country´s perspectives for 2013 last Tuesday in a seminar organized by the specialized publication Bank Magazine. One thing is clear: Argentinean stocks are trading at extremely low valuation levels, and many opportunities look tempting. 

  On the other hand, that's pretty much the only more »

• How to Destroy an Economy

  By Andrés Cardenal - July 8, 2012 | Tickers: BMA, BFR, GGAL, YPF |

  When God was creating the different countries, he stopped for a minute to think about fairness. And then he said: “This country has all the advantages, abundant natural resources, talented people, no religious or racial conflicts and no natural disasters either. That's too much, let's put some Argentinean politicians there”

  That old Argentinean joke is more representative about the country's economic reality now more than ever. Over more »

• Are Argentinean Companies at Risk of Being Expropriated?

  By Andrés Cardenal - April 27, 2012 | Tickers: BMA, BFR, EDN, GGAL, YPF

  The repercussions from the expropriation of YPF (NYSE: YPF) in Argentina are not over yet, as investors are still trying to find out what will happen to the new YPF under control of the Argentinean government. And, even worse, many are wondering of there could be more expropriations of listed companies in the future. 

  Those who are holing YPF shares are facing many problematic unanswered questions, some of which are more »

• When the Government Messes With Investors

  By Andrés Cardenal - March 6, 2012 | Tickers: BMA, VALE, GGAL, PBR, YPF

  Public policies are always important for investors, not only do they influence growth, inflation, interest rates and many other economic variables, but government regulation can also have a very important effect on certain companies or sectors. Even more important, in emerging markets governments can have a direct and decisive influence on company´s strategic decisions and investors need to be very aware of the risks this implies.

  Brazilian energy company more »