5 High Liquidy Stocks to Buy After Pullback
Nick is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinion of the blogger and are not formally edited.
There were 5 stocks with high liquidity (at least 3 million daily trading volume) that had been underperforming compared to the S&P 500 between Feb. 19-22, 2013: BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY), Nokia (NYSE: NOK), Transocean (NYSE: RIG), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), and Vodafone Group (NASDAQ: VOD). Of these stocks, BlackBerry and Nokia offer great turn around potentials, while the remaining three stocks are great long-term holdings with strong fundamentals. Any major pullback in stock prices should create a long-term buying opportunity for these 5 stocks.
Source: Google Finance
BlackBerry is a designer, manufacturer, and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market, providing platforms and solutions for access to information, including email, voice, instant messaging, SMS, and Internet-based applications. BlackBerry was down 6.99% the other week and closed at $13.18 on Feb. 22, 2013. BlackBerry had been trading in the range of $6.22-$18.32 for the past 52 weeks. BlackBerry has a beta of 1.65.
On Feb. 22, 2013, MKM Partners downgraded BlackBerry from Neutral to Sell and lowered the price target from $12 to $10 citing after attributing a lower probability of success to BlackBerry 10 following the testing of the Z10 and observing BB10's momentum stall out in the U.K. after only a few weeks. Analyst Michael Genovese decreased the probability of BB10's success and said,
"We reduce the estimated probability that BB10 will be a success and the stock will appreciate to $40 to 10% from 15% and increase the estimated probability that BB10 will fail and the stock will decline to $7 to 90% from 85%."
On Feb. 7, 2013, Wells Fargo upgraded BlackBerry from Market Perform to Outperform and raised its valuation range from $11-$13 to $19-$20, in transferred coverage to analyst Maynard Um. Um commented,
"Our Outperform rating is predicated on the view that gross margin will improve as the mix of BB10 devices ramps and the existing BB7 portfolio (negative gross margin) declines. We note that BlackBerry shares have generally trended in the direction of gross margin. We believe enterprise service revenue (52% of BlackBerry's service revenue) will not be impacted materially until FY2015 given the timing of the release of the BES 10 service pack and we have already modeled the potential impact to consumer service revenue."
Based on the two mixed analysts' calls from MKM Partners (downgrade) and Wells Fargo (upgrade), BB10's sales and BB10's positive margin contribution are the critical factors to determine BlackBerry's fair value. Although analysts are still positive about BB10, the chance of success for BB10 to lift BlackBerry had been estimated to be lower by the latest analyst's call from MKM Partners.
Analysts have an overall Neutral rating and an average price target of $11.81 (10.4% lower than the current price) for BlackBerry.
There are a few positive factors for BlackBerry:
- Higher revenue growth (3 year average) of 18.6, vs. the industry average of -3.5
- Lower P/B and P/S of 0.7 and 0.5, respectively, vs. the industry average of 2.2 and 1.6, respectively
- BlackBerry has zero total debt, and has a total cash of $2.73 billion
- BlackBerry generates an operating cash flow of $3.15 billion, with a levered free cash flow of $758.62 million
Nokia is a manufacturer of mobile devices, makes a range of devices for all major consumer segments, and offers Internet services. Nokia operates in 3 segments: Devices & Services, NAVTEQ, and Nokia Siemens Networks. Nokia Siemens Networks is turning around and becoming mobile broadband focused. Nokia was down 5.25% two weeks ago and closed at $3.78 on Feb. 22, 2013. Nokia had been trading in the range of $1.63-$5.87 in the past 52 weeks. The company has a beta of 1.57.
On Feb. 15, 2013, Nordea raised its rating on Nokia to Strong Buy from Buy with a price target of €4 ($5.27). Nordea said that better availability of Lumia 820 and 510 models should rectify Q4 shipment issues. As reported, "Nordea also sees Nokia showing off new product at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Spain, on Feb. 25, which includes a new flagship Lumia smartphone for Verizonas well as a Windows RT tablet. Though Nokia's royalty commitments to Microsoft exceed remaining payments due, Nordea thinks there will be limited impact with Nokia not recognizing all payments received in its P&L statement." Looking ahead, Nordea sees Nokia hitting a break-even point in the middle of 2013.
Analysts have an overall Neutral rating with an average price target of $3.69 (2.3% lower than the current price) for Nokia.
There are a few positive factors for Nokia:
- Turning around for Nokia Siemens Networks
- Nokia is banking on Lumia and Asha phones for its turn around, which is gaining some momentum
- Nokia has total cash of $13.43 billion, with total debt of $7.18 billion. Nokia has a book value of $2.81 per share.
Transocean LTD is an international provider of offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells, operating in two segments: contract drilling services and drilling management services. Transocean will collect billions from customers eager to exploit large discoveries under the sea floor because it owns the world's largest offshore drilling fleet. Transocean was down 5.29% the other week and closed at $53.28 on Feb. 22, 2013. Transocean had been trading in the range of $39.32-$59.50 in the past 52 weeks. The company has a beta of 1.18.
On Feb. 19, 2013, DNB Markets downgraded Transocean from Buy to Hold. Howard Weil downgraded Transocean from Outperform to Sector Perform on Feb. 15, 2013. On the same day, Deutsche Bank downgraded Transocean from Hold to Sell with a price target of $49.00, and commented,
"We are lowering our rating from HOLD to SELL. While RIG has made significant progress in addressing its myriad issues, the market and its fleet may increasingly be working against it. Despite a recent update on downtime, yesterday's fleet status report showed a 7% increase in '13 downtime and the first estimate of 2014 downtime is up an additional 5% vs. 2013 (despite a shipyard stay being pulled into '13 and ongoing efforts to improve revenue efficiency). Meanwhile, costs are rising even as rates are flattening. With greater visibility on its Macondo liability and greater clarity on the demands of activist Carl Icahn, most catalysts have been realized as well."
Analysts have an overall Buy rating for Transocean, with a declining rating trend. Analysts' average price target is $60.68 (13.9% upside potential).
There are a few positive factors for Transocean:
- Lower P/B and P/S of 1.3 and 1.8, respectively, vs. the industry averages of 1.4 and 2.2, respectively
- Transocean generates an operating cash flow of $2.35 billion with a levered free cash flow of $1.71 billion
- Backlog worth $30 billion
- Deeper dig in demand
Bank of America
Bank of America is a bank and financial holding company, providing banking and non-banking financial services and products throughout the United States and in selected international markets. Bank of America was down 4.9% the other week and closed at $11.44 on Feb. 22, 2013. Bank of America had been trading in the range of $6.72-$12.42 in the past 52 weeks, and has a high beta of 2.39.
While last week's focus was on CEO Brian Moynihan's pay, investors might want to pay more attentions on the performance and fundamental improvement for the stock itself. For 2013, analysts are expecting an EPS of $1.00 (vs. the year-ago EPS of $0.25) with revenue of $90.64 (vs. the year-ago sales of $86.33 billion). In the past 90 days, the current EPS estimate had been increased from $0.21 to $0.23 for the current quarter ending in March, 2013.
There are a few positive factors for Bank of America:
- Lower P/B of 0.6 and P/S of 1.4 (vs. the industry averages of 1.0 and 2.1, respectively)
- Lower Forward P/E of 8.8 (vs. the S&P 500's average of 14.0)
- Bank of America currently offers an annual dividend yield of 0.35%, and BAC will go ex-dividend on Feb. 27, 2013
Vodafone Group is a global mobile communications company, engaged in providing voice and data communications services for both consumers and enterprise customers. Its offerings include voice, messaging, data and fixed-line solutions and devices to assist customers in meeting their total communications needs. VOD has a 45% stake in Verizon Wireless, which is the largest wireless communications services provider in the United States, with 98.2 million subscribers as of Q4, 2012. Vodafone Group is the second-largest wireless company in the world. Vodafone was down 3.62% last week and closed at $25.01 on Feb. 21, 2013. Vodafone had been trading in the range of $24.42-$30.07 for the past 52 weeks, and has a low beta of 0.71.
"We upgrade Vodafone Group to Buy. First, the US provides several alternative positive catalysts. Second, we expect Group service revenue growth rates to bottom out at ca -4.5% in Q4 13E [fourth quarter of the 2013 fiscal year], before improving (MTR anniversary, no leap year headwind, possible Indian price rises, accretion from Red). Third, in May, we anticipate Vodafone to announce 'at least flat DPS' for y/e Mar 14E. Fourth, we expect very strong Verizon W results (Apr, Jul, Sept 2013) - notably EBIT [earnings before interest and tax] growth."
"The firm said quad-play offers from competitors in Spain and Portugal may pressure market share. The firm also sees M&A activity to address shortcomings in convergence capability."
Vodafone was upgraded by BofA/Merrill Lynch due to positive catalysts from the US and strong Verizon results; however, Vodafone was downgraded by Citi due to increased competition concerns in Spain and Portugal, as well as shortcomings in convergence capability due to M&A activities. Analysts have an overall Buy rating with an average target price of $30.00 for Vodafone, despite the mixed calls.
There are a few positive factors for Vodafone:
- Verizon Wireless continues to dominate in 4G LTE market in the United States
- Higher revenue growth (3 year average) of 4.2 (vs. the industry average of -2.7)
- Lower debt/equity of 0.4 (vs. the industry average of 0.8)
- Vodafone generates an operating cash flow of $18.69 billion with a levered free cash flow of $11.71 billion
- Vodafone offers an annual dividend yield of 6.11%
In short, further pullbacks will create great buying opportunity for these 5 stocks. For conservative investors, it may be better to stay on the sideline for now until price stabilization is seen. I, however, maintain a long-term bullish view for Nokia, Transocean, and Vodafone; however, I'm waiting for further price stabilization to establish the long position for Nokia and Transocean, while holding my Vodafone position.
Note: All prices are quoted from the closing of Feb. 22, 2013 and all calculations are before fees and expenses. Investors and traders are recommended to do their own due diligence and research before making any trading/investing decisions.
NickChiu has a position in Vodafone. The Motley Fool recommends Vodafone. The Motley Fool owns shares of Bank of America and Transocean. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Is this post wrong? Click here. Think you can do better? Join us and write your own!