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Is it Time to Bring Back Glass-Steagall?

Mike is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinion of the blogger and are not formally edited.

The Financial Sector has been a festering boil on the surface of the market over the last four years.  One can argue that the mega banks, and many of their regional brethren, have fallen under the weight of their own gluttony.  The rapid expansion of risky business practices came about from the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, and in the 12 years since it was replaced, the Financials have proven that they are incapable of managing their affairs in a manner that does not compromise the country's banking system.

In this post Glass-Steagall era, financial institutions have been allowed to leverage their balance sheets through the reuniting of commercial and investment banking operations.  This commingling has clouded the lines of what is in the best interest of the consumer and what will provide the maximum net profit each quarter.  The events that led to the 2008 financial collapse were direct consequences of Glass-Steagall's repeal, along with lax regulatory oversight at the Federal level.  It seems that no lesson was learned from the 1980's savings and loan crisis where a fourth of all such firms failed. 
 
The decade-plus period that will forever be known by the moniker "Too Big To Fail" brought about four major national banks: J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), and Wells Fargo .  Each of these industry behemoths have retail, commercial, mortgage, and investment banking under one roof.  The so-called financial supermarkets are the survivors in the Russian roulette that crippled or killed off many of their competitors in the last four years.  These banks combine to hold over 40% of the deposits, 65% of all issued credit cards, and nearly 50% of the mortgages in the US.  
 
So the question should be asked, while their assets and footprints have expanded coast to coast, have their stock prices faired as well?
 
Note that 11/12/1999 is the date then-President Bill Clinton signed the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Modernization Act of 1999 into law, effectively serving to repeal Glass-Steagall.
 

                              

Adj. Close 11/12/99

Adj. Close 6/15/12

% Change    

JPM

$38.75

$35.03

-9.60%

BAC

21.61

7.90

-63.44%

C

289.51

28.31

-90.22%

WFC

17.28

32.45

+87.79%

 
From this perspective, it is obvious that Wells Fargo has been the market winner since the end of Glass-Steagall.  Ironically, Citigroup has suffered near complete decimation in its stock price after being a leading force for bringing about this regulatory overhaul in the late 1990's.  Their goal was to gain formal acceptance of the bank's 1998 merger with Traveler's Group by overturning the laws that had long required a distinct separation between banks and capital market firms.  Looking back at the last 12 years, bigger does not always equal better.

Drilling down further, one can examine the effects of the legislative change on their balance sheets.

 

Net Income

Return on Equity (ROE)

Diluted Earnings / Share

 

1999

2011

1999

2011

1999

2011

JPM

$2.06 bil

$18.98 bil

18.40%

10.14%

$10.39

$4.48

BAC

$2.12 bil

$1.45 bil

17.95%

0.04%

$1.23

$0.01

C

$9.87 bil

$11.07 bil

22.70%

6.32%

$2.83

$3.59

WFC

$3.75 bil

$15.87 bil

17.66%

11.99%

$2.23

$2.82

The comparative analysis of the major four institutions shows mixed results.  JPM has far outpaced the field by growing their net income 821% since the end of Glass-Steagall.  While all of the banks have seen declines in their return on equity, BAC shows virtually no value in its operations though boasting the second largest asset base.  Despite a roller coaster ride that would cause even the most unshakable daredevil to become nauseous, C has managed to pump a 26.8% increase to its diluted earnings.  Overall, however, WFC has been the steadiest financial firm of the group with 323% growth in net income, a 26.5% rise in diluted earnings, and showing the least reduction in its ROE (-32.1%).

An interesting note from the JP Morgan 10k Annual Report dated March 8, 2000, as the section titled "Outlook for 2000" states that the firm will "... generate growth in client revenues by providing more clients with more services while maintaining a reduced risk profile and leveraging technology and innovation to advance our market leadership."

How curious it is to look at that statement today in the light of the recent $2 billion credit default swap loss by JPM's London office.  What ever happened to "maintaining a reduced risk profile?"

The issues that have plagued the American banking sector boil down to unchecked greed and impotent regulatory enforcement.  Industry leadership needs a more committed long-term vision instead of merely putting lipstick on the quarterly earnings pig.  Perhaps the east coast firms should look west and ask Wells Fargo how they have been successful over the last decade and avoided many of the pitfalls that have snared their own efforts.

The end of Glass-Steagall changed the landscape of the financial sector.  While many will claim the measure allowed better services to become available to consumers, there is more evidence to the contrary.  The continued problems besetting the major banks will likely increase calls to restructure the US banking industry in a manner like Glass-Steagall, which had previously worked for 66 years.   Left in the current environment, the issue of moral hazard will remain critical as firms continue seeking better returns by assuming greater degrees of risk with main street's deposits and the government's obligatory guaranty.

Mike Richardson does not currently own any positions in the stocks mentioned.  In full disclosure, he did work with Bank One, N.A. at the time of J.P. Morgan's purchase of the retail bank in 2004. The Motley Fool owns shares of Bank of America, Citigroup Inc , JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Wells Fargo & Company and has the following options: short APR 2012 $21.00 puts on Wells Fargo & Company, short APR 2012 $29.00 calls on Wells Fargo & Company, short OCT 2012 $33.00 puts on Wells Fargo & Company, and short OCT 2012 $36.00 calls on Wells Fargo & Company. Motley Fool newsletter services recommend Wells Fargo & Company. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.If you have questions about this post or the Fool’s blog network, click here for information.

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