Christmas Rally Is On; All Have Made The Higher High List

Stephen is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinion of the blogger and are not formally edited.

In November there was a major sell off in the stocks we are following creating the perfect scenario for a rally. The bargain hunters are grabbing whatever they can courtesy of a short sellers and profit takers union. The following is a summary of those stocks which moved from the Lower High/Lower Low list to at least the Higher High List ; consequently the late comers..

Bank of America  (NYSE: BAC)


<table> <tbody> <tr> <td><strong>Date</strong></td> <td><strong>Price Range</strong></td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Nov 16 to 30, 2012                      </p> </td> <td>$9.95 to $8.92US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nov 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$9.97 to $8.95US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oct 16 to 31, 2012 </td> <td>$9.60 to $9.05US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oct 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$9.65 to $8.85US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sept 16 to 30, 2012</td> <td>$9.49 to $8.70US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sept 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$9.79 to $7.93US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Aug 16 to 31, 2012</td> <td>$8.40 to $7.83US</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

As you can see from the above a spike in price in September enticed short sellers to take positions which increased to 203,075,817 from 109,499,787 and take advantage of profit selling. BAC has faired well as it flirted with the $10.00 mark. The "smart" shorts took profits which reduced the number of outstanding shares shorted to 134,240,482 by the end of September although have since increased to 169,458,376. Since August 15 there are about 79 million shares shorted in a losing position. BAC shares have risen on fundamentals which were confirmed by its last earnings.

Citigroup (NYSE: C)

<table> <tbody> <tr> <td><strong>Date</strong></td> <td><strong> Price Range</strong></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nov 16 to 30, 2012</td> <td> <p> $36.42 to $34.04US</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nov 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$38.50 to $34.89US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oct 16 to 31, 2012</td> <td>$38.72 to $36.25US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oct 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$36.70 to $32.70US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sept 16 to 30, 2012</td> <td>$34.54 to $31.88US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sept 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$35.25 to $29.53US<=====Spike</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Aug 16 to 31, 2012</td> <td>$31.12 to $28.31US</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Like BAC, Citigroup has been consolidating. Unlike BAC the short sellers have been taking profits on the dips, I would hope, without the help of new short sellers taking a position. The number of outstanding shares shorted has actually declined to 36,999,001 from 66,150,418 which is the lowest since May of this year.

Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ)

<table> <tbody> <tr> <td><strong>Date</strong></td> <td><strong>Price Range</strong></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nov 16 to 30, 2012</td> <td>$13.40 to $11.35US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nov 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$14.48 to $12.93US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oct 16 to 31, 2012</td> <td>$14.85 to $13.80US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oct 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$17.62 to $14.02US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sept 16 to 30, 2012</td> <td>$18.46 to $16.23US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sept 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$18.56 to $16.81US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Aug 16 to 31, 2012</td> <td>$20.26 to $16.77US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Aug 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$20.07 to $17.41US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>July 16 to 31, 2012</td> <td>$19.50 to $17.73US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>July 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$20.43 to $18.77US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>June 16 to 30, 2012</td> <td>$21.61 to $19.12US</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

HPQ has been a train wreck and a short seller's dream come true with a $8.8 billion write down helped by Autonomy Corporation plc. Despite the most recent headline losses; HPQ still expects to generate over $2.00 EPS, continue its dividend, and share buyback. The 98,511,783 shares shorted against it are for the most part sitting on decent profits and can leisurely cover. Buyers on the last period of November stock plunge are also sitting on decent profits.

JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM)

<table> <tbody> <tr> <td><strong>Date</strong></td> <td><strong> Price Range</strong></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nov 16 to 30, 2012</td> <td>$41.35 to $38.83US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nov 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$43.07 to $39.86US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oct 16 to 31, 2012</td> <td>$43.54 to $40.87US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oct 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$42.64 to $40.42US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sept 16 to 30, 2012</td> <td>$41.76 to $39.70US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sept 01 to 15, 2012 </td> <td>$42.09 to $36.78US </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Aug 16 to 31, 2012</td> <td>$38.86 to $36.67US</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

JPM has seen an increase of 6 million shares shorted against it since the spike in price during September which now stands at 50,050,581.

JPM is now hovering below its 52 week high which stands at $46.49.

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA)

<table> <tbody> <tr> <td> <strong>Date</strong></td> <td> <strong> Price Range</strong></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nov 16 to 30, 2012 </td> <td>$12.34 to $11.15US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nov 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$13.08 to $11.51US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oct 16 to 31, 2012</td> <td>$13.20 to $11.83US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oct 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$13.80 to $12.50US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sept 16 to 30, 2012</td> <td>$13.90 to $13.02US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sept 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$14.09 to $12.95US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Aug 16 to 31, 2012</td> <td>$14.83 to $13.89US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Aug 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$15.22 to $13.10US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>July 16 to 31, 2012</td> <td>$13.73 to $12.16US</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

NVDA spiked in August and hasn't made the Higher High list since until now. It reported record revenue of $1.20 billion, a 73% increase of EPS quarter over quarter which came in at $0.33, and the initiation of a 7.5 cent per share quarterly dividend in November. NVDA guided a lower revenue ranging from $1.025 billion and $1.175 billion which was enough to drive it to a 52 week low: $11.15.

The outstanding shares shorted against NVDA was it biggest jump this year at the end of November settling at 22,599,925 vs the prior period's 13,733,949 to coincide with its 52 week low. I was always under the impression it was better to buy low and sell high; silly me.

Those extra shares shorted are all losing.

Sandisk  (NASDAQ: SNDK)

<table> <tbody> <tr> <td><strong>Date <br /></strong></td> <td><strong>Price Range</strong></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nov 16 to 30, 2012</td> <td>$40.94 to $38.47US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nov 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$45.33 to $39.27US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oct 16 to 31, 2012</td> <td>$46.84 to $41.68US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oct 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$45.05 to $41.93US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sept 16 to 30, 2012</td> <td>$46.99 to $42.00US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sept 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$46.28 to $40.46US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Aug 16 to 31, 2012</td> <td>$43.91 to $40.69US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Aug 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$42.60 to $40.35US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>July 16 to 31, 2012</td> <td>$42.75 to $32.08US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>July 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$37.39 to $32.63US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>June 16 to 30, 2012</td> <td>$37.64 to $34.00US</td> </tr> <tr> <td>June 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$36.87 to $30.99US</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

SNDK has had a nice steady ride since we introduced it with spikes in July and September at which point it stalled until the last week of November when it plunged. This was simply profit taking.

Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ)

<table> <tbody> <tr> <td><strong>Date</strong></td> <td><strong>Price Range</strong></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nov 16 to 30, 2012</td> <td>$44.31 to $40.51</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nov 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$45.45 to $41.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oct 16 to 31, 2012</td> <td>$46.42 to $43.79</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oct 01 to 15, 2012</td> <td>$48.77 to $43.75 <-----The spike</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sept 16 to 30, 2012</td> <td>$46.06 to $44.27</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Despite double digit growth and EPS and a 51.5 cent dividend could only be described as boring. Just slow and steady yet rewarding evidenced by:

Thomas Seitz ......... Stifel Nicolaus……Sept 14, 2012

Downgraded to HOLD from BUY

VZ Price day before:$45.58

------Oct 26, 2009---------

New BUY

VZ Price day before:$28.85

The most excitement VZ stock saw was triggered by an upgrade in May by Credit Suisse's Jonathan Chaplin only to be followed by a downgrade 2 months later when his target price was achieved. VZ's spike in price at the beginning also saw a spike in shares shorted with the most outstanding shares shorted against it at 48,248,851. The shares shorted at the end of November sit at 47,650,619.

These are the stocks that have been late to the party. The others we track did make the Higher High/Higher Low List , Higher High List, and Higher Low List .


 


moorall has recently taken positions in the NVIDIA mentioned above. The Motley Fool owns shares of Bank of America, Citigroup Inc , and JPMorgan Chase & Co. Motley Fool newsletter services recommend NVIDIA. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Is this post wrong? Click here. Think you can do better? Join us and write your own!

blog comments powered by Disqus