Justin Carley

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  • A Safe Way to Play Emerging Market Growth

    By Justin Carley - August 15, 2013 | Tickers: ABT, EEM, MJN, PM

    The benefits to investing in emerging markets have become well known during the last decade. The pros include better long-term growth and diversification form a portfolio standpoint. The cons are big losses during both cyclical and secular bear markets along with much higher volatility over the cycle. Investors often face this difficult tug-of-war when evaluating whether to invest in emerging markets, and if so, how much. A better alternative might more »

  • Tiptoeing Back Into Stocks

    By Justin Carley - August 12, 2013 | Tickers: CPB, KO, WMT

    Do you want to eat well or sleep well? This old Wall Street saying is just as relevant now as it ever was. The implication being that you can take on more risk and earn the returns needed to eat well, but volatility will keep you awake at night. Or you can sleep well knowing your investments won’t lose money, but returns will be tiny. The chart below highlights more »

  • Biotech Stocks- A Dangerous Perscription

    By Justin Carley - August 7, 2013 | Tickers: AMGN, CELG, GILD

    Biotechnology shares have exploded in recent quarters thanks to M&A offers and rumors as well as favorable drug trial data. The market appears to be taking recent growth and extrapolating it well into the future, which is always a dangerous thing to do. Investors in biotechnology stocks may have forgotten the dangers of slower than expected earnings growth coupled with P/E multiple compression, especially those that have committed more »

  • Housing Stocks - Buy the Dip

    By Justin Carley - July 29, 2013 | Tickers: DHI, NVR, PHM

    PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM) is putting its money where its mouth is. The company made it clear in recent months that it is going to focus on profitable growth and bury forever the devastation that unprofitable sales caused during the housing collapse. Investors and analysts should have applauded the company’s recent quarterly results. Instead, the shares were discarded and fell more than 14% over a two day stretch just prior more »

  • History Says This Stock Will Soar

    By Justin Carley - July 24, 2013 | Tickers: EPD, MPLX, PSXP

    The IPO I have been waiting for has finally arrived. I first drew attention to it in mid-May when I recommended investors build cash and wait. The market correction I hinted at did happen, but was minuscule, and now the S&P 500 resides about 5% higher. MLPs haven’t fared as well and remain unchanged on a total return basis, but got whip-sawed with the volatile movements in the more »

  • Would You Rather Own Bonds or This Stock?

    By Justin Carley - July 18, 2013 | Tickers: CHD, CL, PG

    We remain in the very early innings of a reversal in the secular bear market in stocks and the secular bull market in bonds. The S&P 500 continues to maintain double-digit gains for the year whereas bonds have actually posted a slightly negative return in the first half of the year. Stocks are poised to notably outperform bonds for the remainder of the decade. Investors should continue to look more »

  • Which Housing Stock Is Right for You?

    By Justin Carley - July 16, 2013 | Tickers: HD, LEN, PHM, SHW

    Housing is clearly on the mend. In fact, it is finally starting to realize the kind of bounce one would expect following the worst collapse since the Great Depression. For those tempted to be swayed by the increasing description of the current recovery as a bubble, I present the following chart on single-family new home sales. 

    <img alt="" src="http://g.fool.com/editorial/images/57014/picture0002_large.png" />

    The easy money has clearly been made on most of the housing related plays more »

  • A Hidden Gem in the Food Industry

    By Justin Carley - July 9, 2013 | Tickers: CPB, CAG, K, HSY

    Shares of ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG) have advanced more than 35% in the past year. The company made a big splash during this span with the Ralcorp acquisition and will now be the largest private-label food manufacturer in the United States. The run-up in shares should be encouraging to potential investors as the decade-long slump could give way to several years of out-performance and a re-rating in the shares. The more »

  • Good Luck Getting a 10% Return From Your Bond Fund!

    By Justin Carley - June 27, 2013 | Tickers: BUD, AGG, RCI, VZ | Editor's Choice

    The Fed may or may not get their forecast right regarding employment and the timing of QE tapering. But one thing is for certain, they have made it clear that bond funds can lose money very quickly. The iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market (NYSEMKT: AGG) is a proxy for a conservative bond portfolio with 44% in U.S. Treasuries, 31% in mortgage back securities, 24% in investment grade more »

  • Picks and Pans for the Pullback

    By Justin Carley - June 25, 2013 | Tickers: BIIB, BLK, KMI

    The U.S. stock market is down around 6%, Treasuries are getting crushed, bond funds are down, and gold is down. Nearly every asset class has fallen on hard times after the Fed’s latest outline for the diminished path of QE going forward. Is now the time to panic? The likely answer is no and at this time there is no indication that the cyclical bull market has ended more »

  • Why It Would Be Foolish to Sell Your Stocks

    By Justin Carley - June 19, 2013 | Tickers: XLF, HD, EWJ, TMK, DXJ

    The market has pulled back from its recent highs, and investors have begun to talk about bubbles in several asset classes. Long-term investors should stay focused on the key trends that can move markets, as opposed to scary headlines and political commentary. Two crucial facts make investing in U.S. stocks a compelling opportunity for patient, long-term investors: demographics and the performance of bonds.

    The Bull Market in Bonds has more »

  • The Sector to Avoid if You Sold Your Bonds for Higher Yielding Stocks

    By Justin Carley - May 20, 2013 | Tickers: AMLP, KMI, OKS

    Using dividend stocks as a proxy for fixed income has been gaining traction as pundits continue to call for an imminent collapse in the “bond bubble.” Many investors have been, or are considering, selling their fixed income assets and buying dividend stocks because they have a fear of rising interest rates. On the surface this isn’t a horrible idea and will likely produce excess returns for those willing to more »

  • These 3 Stocks Will Continue to Surge During the Shale Revolution

    By Justin Carley - May 18, 2013 | Tickers: HFC, KEX, VLO

    Shale gas is a game changer. We are in the very early innings of this process and investors still have ample opportunity to position their portfolio to capitalize on the phenomenon. Stocks poised to benefit have already made strong moves, but substantial upside remains if one takes a patient, long-term approach. This is a secular story that will play out over the next decade. Thus certain stocks stand poised to more »

  • Sell in May and Wait for This Can’t Miss IPO

    By Justin Carley - May 13, 2013 | Tickers: EQM, MPLX, PSX, TLLP

    Based on historical tendencies, the market is poised to enter a sideways period or even a correction of up to 10%. Now would be the ideal time to raise a bit of cash and wait for the next can’t-miss IPO. While there is obviously no such thing as a can’t-miss stock when it comes to equity investing, the recent track record of this industry should at least perk more »

  • Concerned About a Market Pullback? Just Add Booze

    By Justin Carley - May 8, 2013 | Tickers: BUD, BEAM, BF-B, DEO, PDRDY.PK

    Alcohol stocks have historically been popular choices thanks to consistent earnings growth. The stocks continue to enjoy a favorable story as pricing remains robust and emerging market consumption gains traction. But investors are well aware that it takes more than a good story to make a stock a good buy. A great story without reasonable valuation is often a disaster waiting to happen. So where do alcohol stocks sit today more »

  • Building a Stronger Core With Abbott Laboratories

    By Justin Carley - April 30, 2013 | Tickers: ABT, ABBV, MJN, MDT, RHHBY

    It has been more than a 100 days since Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT) separated its research-based pharmaceutical business into a newly formed entity named AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV). As is often the case, the spin-off has been the initial winner. AbbVie has produced a total return of more than 32% in pretty quick order. Abbott has done well, but the 17% return has clearly not kept pace. AbbVie is now a more »

  • Why the Bull Market in Stocks Is Far From Over

    By Justin Carley - April 27, 2013 | Tickers: AAP, AZO, XLY

    Consumer discretionary names such auto part companies, hotels, retailing, and media historically lead the performance of the broader based S&P 500. This is due to the importance consumer spending in GDP, at roughly 70%. The market will exhibit its usual gyrations, but investors should be concerned about a market top when consumer discretionary companies notably under-perform the S&P 500 for a three month period. 

    The graph below shows more »

  • Would You Climb Mount Everest Without a Guide? (Part II)

    By Justin Carley - April 15, 2013 | Tickers: BRK-B, XLF, GS

    U.S. equity markets are at all-time highs and each trading day offers opportunities for the media to hype what could be numerous new highs before a notable market correction unfolds. How is your portfolio doing? Is it at all-time highs? Has it beaten the S&P 500? In this second of a three part series, I further dive into a simplistic and effective way for any investor to beat more »

  • Would You Climb Mount Everest Without a Guide? (Part I)

    By Justin Carley - April 12, 2013 | Tickers: CLF, VALE, HYG

    Are you tired of listening to all the billionaires who made their fortune taking enormous gambles tell you that you are too dumb to accomplish what they did? Instead, you better just buy index funds, never sell, and be thankful you still have the shirt on your back. Not so fast. You can beat the market, and it is easier than you think. You don’t have to bet the more »

  • Valuation Is King, Earnings Are Queen

    By Justin Carley - April 8, 2013 | Tickers: CSCO, PHM, SO

    With the S&P 500 reaching new highs, one would expect a lot more enthusiasm; but then again, the index is not too much higher than it was 13 years ago. Dividends have helped produce an annual return just north of 2%, but it is no surprise to hear the stories of investors forever shunning stocks. One could easily assume that earnings have been stuck in the mud and have more »

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