Aeropostale's Epic Nosedive to Unprofitability
Leo is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinion of the blogger and are not formally edited.
Apparel retailer Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO) might be in serious trouble. The company recently reported fourth quarter earnings that slightly topped analyst estimates, but followed it up with sour prospects for the current quarter. As expected, shares slid, and investors started to question the sustainability of Aeropostale’s business of selling clothes to teens and tweens - possibly the planet's most fickle demographic.
Aeropostale operates two primary brick and mortar brands - its namesake stores, which are geared towards 14-17 year old teenage boys and girls, and its P.S. from Aeropostale brand - which is aimed at younger children. It also owns e-commerce retailer GoJane, which sells women’s apparel, accessories and shoes.
During the fourth quarter, Aeropostale closed 11 namesake stores and opened three new ones. It added a single P.S. location, bringing its total to 984 namesake stores and 100 P.S. locations.
Fourth Quarter Earnings
For its fourth quarter, Aeropostale posted a loss of a cent, or $671,000, a sharp decline from the profit of 32 cents per share, or $26.1 million, it reported in the prior year quarter. Adjusting for one-time charges, the company earned 24 cents per share, beating the FactSet consensus estimate of 22 cents per share.
The company’s revenue declined 1% from $808.38 million to $797.7 million, also beating the analyst consensus of $775.70 million.
Although Aeropostale beat estimates for both its top and bottom lines, the company’s bleak forecast for the first quarter, which calls for a loss between 15 cents to 20 cents per share, sank shares more than 5% on March 15. Analysts had anticipated a profit of 8 cents per share.
The company blamed poor holiday sales, which declined after strong sales on Black Friday, and weak macro trends for its weak numbers.
CEO Thomas Johnson acknowledged that Aeropostale’s first quarter and full fiscal year results were “disappointing” and a result of "margin pressures from holiday carryover inventory."
Slumping same-store sales
Aeropostale’s same-store sales sank 8% - a decline from the drop of 7% it reported last year. However, revenue from its e-commerce segment, which includes its Aeropostale and GoJane websites, rose 16% year-over-year to $96.8 million - 12.1% of the company’s total sales.
During the quarter, and especially the holiday season, customers bought 5% more items per transaction. However, total transactions - meaning total customers - declined 6%. The average unit retail price also slid 7%, indicating that Aeropostale marked down items to generate more sales.
This means the company sacrificed gross margin - which contracted 210 basis points to 24% - to unload cheaper products in an attempt to reduce its inventories.
As we can see in this chart, although Aeropostale’s inventories are cyclical, they have steadily risen 15.2% over the past five years.
Rising expenses, contracting margins
Several of Aeropostale’s metrics are headed in the wrong direction, as seen in the following chart.
Operating margin, which is currently at 2.49%, started a steep decline in 2010, and hasn't stopped sliding since. Meanwhile, total expenses rose 54.84%. These numbers indicate that Aeropostale can’t continue its trend of sacrificing its margins to drive sales, because soon there won’t be any margins left to sacrifice.
First quarter outlook confirms a continued nosedive
Unfortunately, Aeropostale’s first quarter forecast confirms that the company is unable to pull out of this nosedive towards negative profit margins and quarterly losses. The company expects to report a loss between 15 cents to 20 cents per share in the current quarter, far below the profit of 9 cents per share that analysts had hoped for.
Are teens and tweens simply tired of Aeropostale?
Although I believe some of Aeropostale’s pain can be attributed to macro factors, such as the payroll tax hike and delayed tax returns, I believe that Aeropostale is simply losing ground against competitors such as Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Gap (NYSE: GPS) and American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO). Other retailers such as rue 21, Forever 21, Hot Topic (NASDAQ: HOTT) and H&M are also further fragmenting the market.
Aeropostale’s ‘core basics’ business, which includes its graphics T-shirts and fleeces, is experiencing waning popularity with its target teen and tween demographic. To put it bluntly, teens and tweens may simply be getting bored of Aeropostale’s styles.
In my opinion, Aeropostale’s focus on teens and tweens is simply not diversified enough for today’s rapidly shifting retail environment. Gap’s diverse portfolio of brands - which include the lower-priced Old Navy, the mid-priced Gap and the higher-end Banana Republic - helped the company maintain balance in a challenging macro environment. Meanwhile, Hot Topic has maintained and edge with its popular graphics T-shirts, which helped its stock climb 38% over the past twelve months.
More questionable decisions
When a company’s margins are contracting to the point of unprofitability and its expenses are rising, it’s not a good idea to expand. However, Aeropostale is planning to open 14 new namesake stores and add 60 new P.S. locations in fiscal 2013. The company also intends to renovate 30 stores while closing 15 to 20 non-performing namesake stores.
Throughout fiscal 2012, Aeropostale repurchased 3 million shares, worth $40.8 million, which was a questionable move, considering two main factors.
First, it would have made been more prudent to wait for a sharp price decline (such as now) to buy back shares at a discount. Second, that money would have been better spent elsewhere - such as on marketing, product development or promotions.
The Foolish Bottom Line
If the above reasons still haven’t convinced you of the gravity of Aeropostale’s situation, then perhaps this table - which measures its fundamental performance against Gap, Abercrombie & Fitch and American Eagle Outfitters - will.
Source: Yahoo Finance, March 16, quarterly reports
Aeropostale’s weak same-store sales growth, dangerously slim profit margin, mediocre growth prospects (based on its PEG ratio), and high P/E valuation all point to lower prices down the road.
Finally, a look at Aeropostale’s top and bottom line growth over the past three years versus these three rivals simply serves as a final confirmation of the company’s bleak future.
All U.S. apparel retailers are expected to suffer to some degree in the first half of 2013 due to macro issues - but some will fall much farther than others. Avoid Aeropostale - this company could become as defunct as the French aviation company for which it is named.
Leo Sun has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of Aeropostale. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Is this post wrong? Click here. Think you can do better? Join us and write your own!