And The Winners Are...!!!
AnnaLisa is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinion of the blogger and are not formally edited.
The Super Bowl generates lots of stock ideas: electronics, commercials, and snack stocks, among others. But for many cinephiles and fashionistas, the Oscars are the Super Bowl -- with only slightly more coherent winner interviews.
The Silver Linings Portfolio Playbook
My "Silver Linings" playbook for post-Oscar stock price appreciation includes Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS). Disney was a big winner with best animated short for Paperman, and best animated full-length feature for Brave. Lincoln, which was distributed by Disney, didn't win Best Picture, but did win Best Actor for Daniel Day Lewis.
Disney also won by hosting the Oscars on its ABC network, this year and for 7 more years. Will Jack Nicholson still be stepping up to give away Oscars then? Doesn't matter, because the ad revenue from the Oscars this year hit a record, up to $1.85 million for a 30-second spot. And those ads were sold out more than a month early, as advertisers clamored for the ceremony's 39 million upscale viewers.
As Disney owns ESPN, amusement parks and resorts, cruises, and very robust entertainment divisions, it will likely power higher than its 52 week high of $55.95. Disney has a 17.50 P/E and a 1.30% yield.
Despite unprecedented pre-Oscar spending by studios this year, including Disney, Warner Brothers' Argo won best picture, and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) will be the beneficiary as curious moviegoers check it out. Movies that have won a major award, like Best Picture, Best Director, or Best Actress and Actor, typically enjoy a post-Oscar bump of millions in revenue. Time Warner has a 17.15 P/E and a 2.20% yield (ex-dividend Feb.26) with a 1.19 PEG. That's better than Disney's 1.41 PEG.
The Weinstein Company is privately held, but connected by a stake in Starz Series A Liberty Capital (NASDAQ: STRZA). The Weinstein Co. is responsible for both "Silver Linings Playbook," which received a Best Actress win for Jennifer Lawrence, and "Django Unchained," which won Best Original Screenplay for director/writer Quentin Tarantino.
Starz, the pay-TV channel, was only recently spun off from Liberty Media Corporation (NASDAQ: LMCA) in mid-January, and both are headquartered in Englewood, CO. They still have plenty of overlap in their management. The spinoff is too recent to properly evaluate until it reports its first independent quarter. It did recently ink a renewal deal with Sony Pictures for that studio's movie content, in place until 2021; this renewal took one risk to the stock off the table. It also has a deal with Disney until 2015.
Some speculate that John Malone, the big name behind Liberty Media, structured Starz as a takeover target; Liberty Media kept most of the"good stuff," like stakes in Sirius and Live Nation. Warren Buffett is still a big shareholder in Liberty Media. Both Starz and Liberty Media have fairly low P/Es, and have genius investor Malone behind them.
Here's To The Losers
There are always a few upsets at the Oscars that keep people yawning unitil the very end. This year, the Oscars closed with Kristin Chenoweth and Seth McFarlane singing "Here's To The Losers, Bless Them All," which ought to be the signature sendoff from now on.
But perhaps Weight Watchers International (NYSE: WTW) spokeswoman Jennifer Hudson should have sung that tune. She really gave Weight Watchers some street cred, showcasing her new slimmer figure as she sung a hit from Dreamgirls.
The stock might see a short lived post-Oscar bump, as I imagine Hudson inspired a lot of weight-conscious women to sign up for a meeting. The "Here's To The Losers"song might have a double meaning for Weight Watchers, since it recently plunged 20% after its latest earnings release.
The first part of the year is generally a good time for weight-management stocks, but that didn't help Weight Watchers this time, with huge debt and lowered guidance due to declining attendance, increasing competition, and poor returns from an expensive marketing campaign.
At a 10.35 P/E and a 1.60% yield, Fool Brian D. Pacampara thinks a turnaround at Weight Watchers might be worth a look, however. At the Feb. 14 earnings release, CEO David Kirchoff admitted that the company's move to attract male customers wasn't working as well as hoped, and that Weight Watchers intended to move marketing dollars elsewhere. Since their online membership is improving, that may be a good target for those dollars, making the Internet an even better profit driver going forward.
And the winner is...
Of course, it's an honor for these stocks to be nominated, but the interesting ones might be the John Malone-related stocks, Starz and Liberty Media, as well as Time Warner. Disney has had such a huge run over the last two years, and the valuation of the other candidates above, even Weight Watchers, is better.
leglamp has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Walt Disney. The Motley Fool owns shares of Walt Disney. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Is this post wrong? Click here. Think you can do better? Join us and write your own!