And So It Begins
Glen is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinion of the blogger and are not formally edited.
Hello, my name is Glen Bradford. I am presently deciding to undertake the task of pricing the S&P500 every quarter. This should be exciting. Impossible you say? I don't think so. I priced something like 10,000 companies a few years back in a garage while I ate routisserie chicken and drank Coca-Cola. Am I crazy? Yessir.
First off, where am I getting my list from? I'm using wikipedia sorted by GICS Sector.
Obviously I'm starting from scratch here, but I intend to be consistent throughout. I'll give two items for each of these stocks. I'll provide a price range that I believe they belong in as well as an outperform or underperform rating as compared to the S&P500 if I feel comfortable in giving one. What am I waiting for. Let's do this. Leroy Jenkins!
1. First on deck is Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF). Boy am I glad to see this one getting rocked down from nearly $80 a few months ago. I figure that this is worth $60 to $80. Outperform.
2. Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN). That's a tough one. The wild card here as I see it is their ability to continue to avoid various taxes because they are an internet business. Target: $160-$220. Good job growing top and bottom line historically but more recently their bottom line hasn't kept pace and they aren't the only online retailer.
3. Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL) is a private education provider. I'm not particularly a fan of these types of companies. Combine that with the fact that this isn't a public company, implying that if you buy all the freely trading stock you only own 49% of the company. Target: $40 to $55.
4. AutoNation Inc (NYSE: AN) appears to be a bet on the future of US car sales. I'm a fan of peak oil and the questionable production showing up 1H 2012. That said, this looks like a fun stock to trade. That said, this looks exposed to sytemic risk. A year like 2008 might be in store in the future as I am forecasting a potential European Debt Crisis: Target: $25-$40.
5. AutoZone (NYSE: AZO) prints a historical price chart that makes me unusually cautious because it only goes up but has decades of negligable performance before it is revalued. The company is presently issuing debt to buy back stock at all time highs. I agree with issuing debt to buy-back stock, but at lower prices. This is a suicide mission. Target: $150-$300. Underperform.
6. Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY) reminds me of pleasant smells and girly stuff. As far as their stock goes, I'd put it worth $50-$65. The price is too rich for me to bite but it's the end of the world as their Y/Y numbers look to be printing over 20% growth. I'd say it's fairly valued.
Wildcard: Media General (NYSE: MEG) was a stock brought to my attenion recently that I wanted to take a look at. It looks like a billion in debt for a market cap of less than $100M. My analysis puts this worth somewhere between $4-$7. Outperform. I figure 2012 will bail them out of their rut. Sadly, they are probably worth more broken up.
Also, while I'm at it, E-Mail me your favorite stocks and I'll price them too to the best of my ability. My email is globalspeculation at gmail dot com.
Glen Bradford and his investors are not long any of the companies mentioned in this article.