Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
Joshua is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinion of the blogger and are not formally edited.
The Big Wave Trading portfolios switched from a SELL to NEUTRAL signal intraday on 6/6/12 as the Nasdaq rose 1.5%+. The heavier volume selling was drying up before the switch and we warned that a switch was coming last week. That indeed was the case this week. If the next switch of the model is to SELL, this second confirming SELL signal (confirming because the most recent SELL signal was profitable with a 3% gain on QQQ short) will be a strong signal and we will be increasing our short positions accordingly. As of now, Big Wave Trading is very heavy cash. If any new BUY signal comes without volume confirmation it will be a very weak signal and trading will be initiated accordingly. Our model, following all the recent distribution the past three months will not have a strong BUY signal until the market averages can produce a 2%+ gain on volume 25% above the 50 day volume average. Leading stocks via Relative Strength and EPS/sales growth must also confirm the move. It is summer time and we warned investors that it would be choppy and consist of lower volume. The only meaningful move we expect is a move to the downside, if a move does occur. During the past twenty years only one Follow-Through day has led to a rip roaring bull market–twenty years ago in 1992. During the past 12 years only two BUY signals during the summer have generated any meaningful gains– in 2000 in leading stocks and 2009 with the market model/leading stocks. The data is what it is. Price is our ultimate tell and we will invest accordingly. Volume is our guide as to how much capital we will use when price produces a signal. We continue to keep our trades small until the next perfect setup occurs. On the long side, there has not been one since SLXP setup in March (it failed that setup) and the last successful one was LQDT on 2/1/12. On the short side there has not been one since BVSN in early March and PRXI in late March. The most important rule right now is cutting our losses short. If we take a position and it does not move in our favor immediately, in this tape, we begin selling until the final cut loss is hit. We are not playing games in this tape. Cash is king, as of this moment right now. By Monday, it could be completely different. However, the chances of that happening is very slim. Aloha and have a great weekend everyone.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Purchase
LQDT (NASDAQ: LQDT) – 76% – 2/1/12
BVSN short (NASDAQ: BVSN) – 76% – 3/16/12
AVD (NYSE: AVD) – 74% – 1/10/12
MNST (NASDAQ: MNST) – 51% – 1/13/12
VRNM short (NASDAQ: VRNM) – 36% – 4/10/12
PHMD short (NASDAQ: PHMD) – 34% – 5/11/12
MAGS short (NASDAQ: MAGS) – 34% – 4/18/12
PRXI short (NASDAQ: PRXI) – 29% – 3/30/12
SINO short (NASDAQ: SINO) – 29% – 4/12
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