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Reza Ganjavi

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  • 2012's Top Russell 2000 Gainer Poised for a Repeat Performance in 2013

    By Reza Ganjavi - January 18, 2013 | Tickers: ARNA, VVUS

    The first weight management medication approved by the FDA in over a decade will soon hit the USA market. Belviq, by Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARNA), is a single-molecule novel agent developed in California using an advanced GPCR technology based on a Nobel Prize winning scientific discovery.

    Arena’s stock had a stellar 382% Gain in 2012, placing it as the top gainer in the Russell 2000 index. For the reasons more »

  • DEA Scheduling Helps Arena

    By Reza Ganjavi - December 27, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, OREX, VVUS

    Patients, doctors, and investors endured a six-month wait for the United States Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) to schedule Belviq (lorcaserin hydrochloride), the first weight loss drug approved in 13 years by the FDA. Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARNA) stands to substantially benefit from the success of Belviq as the obesity epidemic effects more than 100 million Americans, an estimated 500 million patients globally. Belviq is also effective in treating type 2 more »

  • Arena Pharma Will Dominate US, Europe & Rest of Globe's Obesity and Diabetes Markets

    By Reza Ganjavi - December 4, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, VVUS

    Many retail investors believe Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARNA) has an emerging blockbuster in its obesity and diabetes medicine, Belviq. Institutional investors have not caught on fully but are getting there. Arena's institutional ownership has been streadily on the rise since FDA approval of Belviq on June 27, from 25% to 45% of the float. The American market is ripe and wide open, but Arena's prospects are global, another more »

  • Eight Facts that Spell Trouble for Arena Pharmaceuticals’ Short Sellers

    By Reza Ganjavi - November 19, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, OREX, VVUS

    Investors may be able to derive an interesting story from the following facts that would shed some insights into the price volatility of shares of Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARNA).

    1)    ARNA was added to the RegSHO list on November 15.

    2)    Updated data from Nasdaq indicates an institutional ownership of 45.16% which is a significant jump from the pre-Adcomm level.

    3)    Short interest in Arena is almost 51 million more »

  • Vivus’ Problems are Arena's Opportunities

    By Reza Ganjavi - November 15, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, OREX, VVUS

    Vivus (NASDAQ: VVUS)’s management told investors recently that weak sales of Qsymia are partly due to a weakness in the category which I understood to mean because doctors are not used to writing prescriptions for obesity it takes time for the scripts to pick up steam. However, listening to them and knowing what I know about Arena and the obesity market, I think Vivus' issues are not categorical, and more »

  • Is Belviq The Next Global Blockbuster?

    By Reza Ganjavi - November 13, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, OREX, VVUS

    In its recent quarterly update, Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARNA) announced some important new developments. For example, the company announced that it is working on establishing Belviq as a therapy for various indications such as smoking cessation, and doing trials in combination with agents such as phentermine and metformin. Arena will disclose more details after consulting with the FDA on further studies.

    Another important announcement was partnership with Ildong Pharmaceuticals to more »

  • Vivus a Good Short; Arena a Screaming Buy

    By Reza Ganjavi - November 8, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, OREX, VVUS

    Vivus (NASDAQ: VVUS) just announced its quarterly results and as usual the smooth-talking management who’ve managed to convince some analysts that Qsymia is better than sliced bread, projected a rosy future for the company despite dismal numbers and other unpleasant realities surrounding Qsymia.

    I called Vivus a short when it was in the $30's. Insiders sold a ton of shares in the 30’s on down. At $13 more »

  • Arena Pharmaceuticals' Solution to a Billion Dollar a Day Problem

    By Reza Ganjavi - November 5, 2012 | Tickers: ABT, ARNA, JNJ, MRK, PFE, VVUS

    Aside from their impact on quality of life of millions of people, and causing death among many of their victims, obesity and diabetes are the top burdens on the healthcare system in the US. The following statistics are shocking:

    a) A 2012 Cornell University study published in the Journal of Health Economics estimates that the treatment of obesity in the US costs $190.2 billion per year.

    b) According to more »

  • Why Arena's Launch Will Be Strong, Despite Vivus' Weak Launch

    By Reza Ganjavi - November 1, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, BAC, JNJ, PFE, VVUS

    It has always been clear to me that despite Wall Street's (souring) love affair with Vivus (NASDAQ: VVUS), Qsymia will not be a great success for the company for the following reasons:

    1) Qsymia has safety risks that discourage some doctors and patients from using it. This is a key to my prediction of low demand for it based on discussions with several doctors. It will be used, but more »

  • Eisai Looks to Arena for Next Blockbuster

    By Reza Ganjavi - October 31, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, JNJ, PFE, SBUX, VVUS

    Eisai Co., Ltd. has recently marketed two blockbusters in the US:

    Aricept was an Eisai blockbuster for treatment of Alzheimer's disease. It is marketed together with Pfizer (NYSE: PFE). Aricept's patent has expired and Eisai/ Pfizer face competition from generic versions of Aricept.

    Aciphex is another Eisai blockbuster, a proton pump inhibitor for treatment of GERD (gastroesophageal reflux) disease. Eisai marketed Aciphex together with Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE: JNJmore »)

  • Nobel Prize and the Next Biotech Goldmine

    By Reza Ganjavi - October 30, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, CS, OREX, VVUS

    Earlier this month, the 2012 Nobel Prize in chemistry was granted to two American scientists for their work on a G-Protein Coupled Receptors (GPCRs), a.k.a. "seven-transmembrane domain receptors" which sense external molecules and activate internal signals and cell response. These receptors are linked to a wide range of diseases. Around 70% of all medicines today somehow affect these receptors and most of them were developed without a more »

  • Analysts Objectivity in Coverage of the Obesity Space

    By Reza Ganjavi - October 26, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, BAC, CS, OREX, VVUS

    Today Orexigen Therapeutics (NASDAQ: OREX) announced a proposed public offering of common stock. Surprise, surprise! Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS)‎ and BofA Merrill Lynch ("ML") (NYSE: BAC) are two of the three book-running managers for the offering. Both Credit Suisse and Merrill Lynch have been promoting Orexigen with what appeared to me to be inflated price targets.

    By the same token, both CS & ML have been wrong in issuing bearish sentiments more »

  • Vivus' Formal Rejection in Europe: A Win for Arena & a Wake-Up Call for the FDA

    By Reza Ganjavi - October 19, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, VVUS

    Last month Vivus (NASDAQ: VVUS) informed investors that the company's weight loss drug, Qsymia (Qsiva) would get rejected by the European Medicines Agency committee. Yesterday, the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) issued a formal recommendation against approval of the Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) of Qsymia (Qsiva) in the European Union.

    Several American doctors were hoping that Qsymia would also get rejected in the US, but earlier more »

  • As Door Closes On Vivus It Swings Wide Open For Arena

    By Reza Ganjavi - September 25, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, OREX, VVUS

    Vivus (NASDAQ: VVUS) announced today that the company's weight loss drug, Qsymia will likely be rejected by the European Medicines Agency committee. This news couldn't have come at a worse time for Vivus as it is participating in the Obesity Society's 30th Annual Scientific Meeting and word around this rejection could circulate among American doctors like wild fire.

    Many believe FDA should not have approved Qsymia due more »

  • Credit Suisse Sets A New Low Standard For Poor Analysis In Their Coverage Of Arena Pharmaceuticals

    By Reza Ganjavi - September 9, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, CS, OREX, OSTK, VVUS

     [Disclaimer: All the points which are not explicitly attributed to CS are only general statements and should not be considered as being about CS. Issues with CS's report on Arena are listed in the APPENDIX]

    Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARNA)  is a San Diego, California company which has recently had its drug, Belviq, a potential mega blockbuster approved by the FDA -- the first weight management drug approved in 13 years more »

  • Obesity Pandemic Addressed By Collaboration Between American, Swiss, Japanese Companies

    By Reza Ganjavi - September 5, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, VVUS

    The global obesity pandemic and the American obesity epidemic are about to get tackled by two new products which were recently approved by the FDA, namely Belviq and Qsymia. Belviq seems to have a much better safety profile than Vivus Inc.'s (NASDAQ: VVUS) Qsymia as evidenced by the fact that the FDA did not mandate a REMS program for Belviq. As for efficacy, Belviq's trials showed that the more »

  • Institutional Appetite is Increasing for ARNA and Decreasing for VVUS and OREX

    By Reza Ganjavi - August 20, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, DNDN, OREX, VVUS

    Comparing the latest institutional ownership reports for the three obesity drug stocks, Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARNA), Vivus (NASDAQ: VVUS), and Orexigen Therapeutics (NASDAQ: OREX) reveals a trend that I predicted in previous articles, namely an increase in institutional appetite for Arena shares and a decrease for Vivus shares. Orexigen, which is a long way from obtaining approval, also experienced a decrease.

    The latest institutional holdings report, which covers the period more »

  • Vivus PDUFA: A Momentous Chance for Wall Street to Catch Up with Arena

    By Reza Ganjavi - July 17, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, VVUS | Editor's Choice

    Wall Street has been banking on Vivus (NASDAQ: VVUS) for a long time under two assumptions: a) Qnexa will get approved b) Arena's (NASDAQ: ARNA) Belviq will not get approved. The former will be decided shortly by the FDA. The latter turned out to be a false assumption that caught Wall Street by surprise, and as a consequence left institutions with only around 25% ownership of Arena.

    If you more »

  • Partnership and Acquisition in the Red Hot Weight Loss Market

    By Reza Ganjavi - July 15, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, JNJ, PFE, VVUS

    Obesity is not just an American epidemic but a global pandemic. In the US, the first approved obesity drug in 13 years is Arena Pharmaceutical's (NASDAQ: ARNA) Belviq. A second company, Vivus (NASDAQ: VVUS) stands a good chance of getting its drug, Qnexa, approved by the FDA on July 17; an approval many hope carries heavy restrictions and a REMS program due to serious safety concerns. 

    The FDA's more »

  • Lingering Concerns about Qnexa's Safety

    By Reza Ganjavi - July 11, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, VVUS

    Dr. Sanjay Kaul used his favorite phrase -- "Lingering concerns" -- in arguing against the safety of Lorcaserin (see "Dr. Kaul's Bias"), despite the lack of clinical evidence for his concern. The advisory committee and the FDA didn't agree with Dr. Kaul, and rightfully so. We can fervently use the same phrase to refer to Qnexa's safety concerns since there is proven clinical evidence of dangerous side effects, which more »

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