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Patrick King

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  • Bank of Japan Joins The Printing Parade

    By Patrick King - April 6, 2013 | Tickers: EWJ, JPM, NMR

    The Bank of Japan has embarked on a new stimulus program similar to that of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. If you partake of the Keynesian Cool-Aid, you doubtless think this is a "good thing", whereas if you are a right thinking Austrian, you are shaking your head as yet another quasi-governmental agency makes a vain attempt to fix a real economy by printing fake more »

  • Almost China

    By Patrick King - July 26, 2012 | Tickers: T, BIDU, CMGE, VZ

     

    Last December, in China's Price for Success, I argued that "as one of the few big fast-growing markets left, you almost have to invest in China." I have come to believe that almost was the key word in that statement.

    Back in December, China's economy was expected to grow at 7%. According to Forbes, that's still China's official line, but the same article points out that more »

  • Gold a Value Trap?

    By Patrick King - July 2, 2012 | Tickers: ABX, BVN, NEM, GLD

    Gold was one of my first topics when I started my Foolish musings. In December I introduced you to Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), down 29%, and Compania De Minas Buenaventura SA Buena (NYSE: BVN), down 2%. At the same time, the metal itself is down 8%, as measured by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEMKT: GLD). In February I wrote about Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE: ABX), down 23% since then.

    So more »

  • You can be a Crony Capitalist

    By Patrick King - May 2, 2012 | Tickers: NLY, CIM, NCT

    Newcastle Investment Corp. (NYSE: NCT) is a real estate investment trust that, like its more famous cousins Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY) and Chimera Investment (NYSE: CIM), makes some good money by dealing in various ways with residential mortgages. In addition, it is still mostly under investors' radar screen, with only three analysts providing coverage and relatively low institutional ownership. Does that explain Newcastle's low P/E, and more »

  • When Gas Turns Around

    By Patrick King - April 26, 2012 | Tickers: APA, CNP, CHK

    Natural gas has been trading at multi-decade lows, and natural gas companies' mismanagement has been getting a lot of press...

    ... it doesn't seem like a natural time to invest in NG companies. Besides the bad news above, both PG&E and Chesapeake more »

  • Picking A High Dividend ETF

    By Patrick King - April 17, 2012 | Tickers: IDV, SDY, VIG, VYM, DGS

    Bond yields remain weak, and the potential price action when yields do recover could prove volatile, so a lot of income seeking investors have been turning to stock dividends. Of course, picking a stock is nothing like picking a bond, so lots of exchange traded fund providers have entered the dividend space to "help"...

    Above I have attempted to shoehorn my "Good Bad Ugly" method onto a number of high more »

  • More Lessons from Vegas: It's Good to be the House

    By Patrick King - March 28, 2012 | Tickers: APD, ADP, CLF, QCOM

    Yes, I've been back again (I love my job). This time as I watched the cards and money flow around the poker table, with stacks getting smaller in front of some people and getting larger in front of others, I reflected that good players are like good investors -- they consistently make smart decisions, even if they don't all work out.

    Then there's the house. Every hand, they more »

  • Big Money, Smart Money

    By Patrick King - March 3, 2012 | Tickers: SCHW, ETFC, IBKR, SEIC

    Despite continued outflows in equity funds, the market has been moving up since October, and rocking in the New Year! If the little guys are getting out, and the market's moving up, then the big guys must be moving in! Assuming that they got big by being smart, we could try to ride their coat tails by going all in behind them until the headlines start talking about equity more »

  • More Lessons from Vegas: Rethinking Apple

    By Patrick King - March 2, 2012 | Tickers: AAPL, CBS, DELL, HPQ, MSFT

    My regular readers know the high regard I hold for dividends, which is why I have never paid much attention to Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). A recent trip to Las Vegas reminded me, however, that there can be an opportunity cost to being too mechanical in one's approach to things (like, for instance, insisting that a stock pay a dividend).

    My usual game in Vegas is Limit Texas Hold'em more »

  • An Investor's Checklist: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

    By Patrick King - February 29, 2012 | Tickers: LLY, JNJ, MSFT, NVO, QCOM

    Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) ugly? How could I say such horrible things about an American classic, not to mention a Foolish Favorite? Well, ok ugly is an ugly word, but I do have a reason not to include Johnson & Johson in my current portfolio.

    Consider the following table:

    Since the numbers above could have changed, I encourage you to conduct your own research, folks. What the above five stocks hold more »

  • I Love Goooold

    By Patrick King - February 2, 2012 | Tickers: ABX, BVN, NEM, GLD

    I love gold. Well, I am attached to gold stocks, anyway. When last I wrote on this topic, I offered a couple of high yielding stocks that might profit from political changes in Peru. Since then, Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) is up 2%, and Companhia de Minas Buenaventura SA (NYSE: BVN) is down 6%. The case for gold is unchanged, however, as long as uncertainty reigns in Europe and the more »

  • Big Dividend, Bad Bank

    By Patrick King - January 28, 2012 | Tickers: FMER, KEY, PRK

    A friend recently put me onto Park National (NYSEMKT: PRK). It has been on a nice run lately, up 15% since November. At first glance, the runup would seem to be justified. It has managed to rid itself of the money-losing Vision Bank, and announced that it's improved earnings 30% over 2010. And with a dividend of over 5% and a profit margin of over 17%, it fits my more »

  • Revisiting Sears

    By Patrick King - January 26, 2012 | Tickers: SHLD

    Only last week, I wrote about Sears Holding Corp (NASDAQ: SHLD) as a potential short. Since then, Sears has risen from $36.75 on Jan. 17 to $44.34 today, some 20% in a little over a week. Obviously, my crystal ball needs a little polishing! What's happened in the last week to drive this surge?

    The first newsworthy thing I came across is that Eddie Lampert, Sears Holding more »

  • Is This the Year for TBT?

    By Patrick King - January 19, 2012 | Tickers: TBT

    ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSEMKT: TBT) is an ETF that bets against US Treasury bonds, and that has been a consistent loser for several years, despite the recommendations of several talking heads, and my own skepticism about the US' ability to continue to float debt.

    Despite S&P's downgrade of US debt (and rumours of another), the US bond market has benefited from the flight of bond investors more »

  • Banks Finally a Buy?

    By Patrick King - January 18, 2012 | Tickers: BOH, CHCO, NYCB

    According to the Wall Street Journal, banks are finally increasing lending. Since the Fed has committed to low rates for quite a while, these new loans should prove profitable, which could be why bank stocks have started to turn around.

    The news attracted me to the sector. My own methodology valuing profits and dividends (I like companies that make money, and that give it to me) attracted me to the more »

  • Shorting in Tax Deferred Accounts

    By Patrick King - January 14, 2012 | Tickers: BBRY, SHLD

    The studious investor looks at a lot of stocks, a few of which he judges to be winners, most of which he is indifferent to or undecided about, and a few of which he judges to be losers. If there are really only a few investment ideas that you can believe in, can you afford to throw away half of them just because of the direction of movement?

    Outright shorting more »

  • Intel Changes the Game -- Again

    By Patrick King - December 31, 2011 | Tickers: INTC, TXN

    The semiconductor industry's success has long thanked Moore's Law for its success. However, it would be better called Moore's observation, in that nothing says that the continued shrinking size and increasing performance of electronics is inevitable. As the boundaries of physics have been reached, further progress has become more difficult. In a world where chips have become commodities and off-brand knockoffs the norm, Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTCmore »)

  • Commercial Property Interest Rates to Rise

    By Patrick King - December 29, 2011 | Tickers: BPO

    The Wall Street Journal reported last week that mortgage rates for commercial borrowers have bottomed out. With over $1,000,000,000 in commercial debt coming due in the US in 2012, it occured to me that commercial property managers like Brookfield Properties Corp (NYSE: BPO) might be facing a problem in the new year. 

    Luckily, an hour perusing BPO's annual and quarterly reports reinforced my conviction that they more »

  • It's All About the Comps!

    By Patrick King - December 29, 2011 | Tickers: STM

    I recently had the opportunity to go to Vegas at my employer's expense. While meeting his business goals, I met my entertainment goals, spending some time at the slots and playing poker. Over four hours of play, I lost about $12. Money well spent? Yes! Can I relate this to my investment strategies? Yes!

    First off, let's discount the entertainment value. I like gambling. You may not. We more »

  • When the Bond Bubble Bursts

    By Patrick King - December 28, 2011 | Tickers: INTC, MCD

    US treasury bonds are trading at historically high prices, currently yielding only 0-3%. Back in 1990, they were yielding around 8%. Will we ever go back to those days? What happens when we do?

    In 1990, government debt was roughly half of GDP. Today, it's 90%(see the chart). Italy's debt load is also about 90%, and it's paying 3-7% on its debt.

    It's clear that more »

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