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Peter Epstein

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  • If Natural Gas, Why Not Gold?

    By Peter Epstein - May 8, 2013 | Tickers: ABX, GDXJ, NEM

    Few questioned the reasoning behind the thesis. Natural gas prices had been stuck in a range between $2.00-$3.30/mmBtu for almost two years. Yet, today natural gas prices are above $4/mmBtu, more than double last year's low tick. The EIA reports,   

    "Average wholesale (spot) prices for natural gas fell significantly throughout the U.S. in 2012 compared to 2011. The average price for natural gas more »

  • Cloud Peak Energy, What Will Make it Peak?

    By Peter Epstein - May 3, 2013 | Tickers: ARLP, ACI, CLD, CNX, BTU

    Cloud Peak (NYSE: CLD) is a very good coal producer. As a result, its stock has held up far better than U.S. peers, many of which have been slaughtered. Only Alliance Resource Partners, (NASDAQ: ARLP) a coal MLP and Consol Energy, (NYSE: CNX) have performed better. Alliance has benefited most from the rebound in natural gas prices to above $4 per mcf from $2-$3 per mcf last year more »

  • Is All the Bad News Out For Allied Nevada?

    By Peter Epstein - May 3, 2013 | Tickers: ANV, CAGDF, GDX

    Is All the Bad News Finally Out on Allied Nevada? 

    Before I try to answer, let's review the chain of events that has taken the stock about 70% from December 31, 2012 to $9.60 today. For comparison purposes, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, (NYSEMKT: GDX) is down about 40% year-to-date. Allied Nevada, (NYSEMKT: ANV) is one of the worst performers among mid-tier producers. The next worst performer more »

  • Consol Energy Weighed Down By Coal, Not Natural Gas!

    By Peter Epstein - May 2, 2013 | Tickers: ANR, CNX, WLT

    Consol Energy, (NYSE: CNX) is a major force in both natural gas and coal in the U.S. Until recently, the Company's stock price was held back by years of low natural gas prices. Last year natural gas fell briefly below $2 per mcf. At that price, no one was making any money. It's widely believed that a natural gas price comfortably above $3 is required for the more »

  • A Better Bet Than the Saskatchewan Potash Juniors

    By Peter Epstein - May 2, 2013 | Tickers: BHP, ENCTF, KRLTF, POT, WPSHF

    Europe's largest potash producer, K+S AG, recently announced it will delay its green field potash project in Saskatchewan due to increasing costs. The Legacy Project cap-ex estimate increased to $4 billion from an original estimate of $3.25 billion. It forecasts the new mine will produce 2 million tonnes by of 2017, growing to 2.86 million tonnes 2023.

    What Does This Say About the Prospects for Saskatchewan more »

  • Teck Resources -- The Good and the Not So Good

    By Peter Epstein - May 1, 2013 | Tickers: BHP, RIO, TCK

    Teck Resources (NYSE: TCK) has very attractive assets, but not without moderate risk. It will be a prime beneficiary of the rebound in demand for coking coal and copper, timing unknown. However, in the short term, Teck faces many of the same headwinds as peers like BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto, (NYSE: RIO). Teck has a solid balance sheet to get through the current challenging markets. Over time more »

  • Down Sharply from its 2011 High, Is Walter Energy a Buy?

    By Peter Epstein - May 1, 2013 | Tickers: CLD, CNX, BTU, WLT

    Forget the 52-Week Low, Walter Energy is Down 88% Since March 2011

    Few natural resource stocks have been hit as hard as Walter Energy (NYSE: WLT). Even among its peer group of horribly performing U.S. coal stocks, Walter is off considerably more than Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), Cloud Peak (NYSE: CLD) and Consol Energy (NYSE: CNX). Trading at about $17 per share, down from a high of about $141 more »

  • Just Give Me Flat Gold Demand as Supply Falters

    By Peter Epstein - April 17, 2013 | Tickers: ANV, ABX, NEM, GLD

    Wild Gold Price Swings Divorced From Supply / Demand Considerations

    On Friday, Apr. 12, gold prices fell more than $80 per ounce to about $1,480. The sell-off, (some called it panicked, some said it was capitulation) means that in technical terms gold has, "broken down." I am not a big fan of technical analysis. I have no idea where gold is headed next. 

    Over a longer period, I believe that more »

  • Just Give Me Flat Gold Demand as Supply Falters

    By Peter Epstein - April 17, 2013 | Tickers: ANV, ABX, NEM, GLD

    Wild Gold Price Swings Divorced From Supply / Demand Considerations

    On Friday, Apr. 12, gold prices fell more than $80 per ounce to about $1,480. The sell-off, (some called it panicked, some said it was capitulation) means that in technical terms gold has, "broken down." I am not a big fan of technical analysis. I have no idea where gold is headed next. 

    Over a longer period, I believe that more »

  • Is Alliance Resource Partners a Buy After Massive Out-Performance?

    By Peter Epstein - April 16, 2013 | Tickers: ARLP, ANR, KOL, NRP, BTU

    I've written several articles on coal Master Limited Partnership Alliance Resource Partners, LP (NASDAQ: ARLP) here on TMF. Late last year I opined that Alliance and Natural Resource Partners, LP (NYSE: NRP)were over sold due to fiscal cliff fears. In the past 12 months, Alliance's units are up ~20% while the Market Vectors Coal ETF, (NYSEMKT: KOL) is down close to 25%. Does this substantial out-performance mean more »

  • Is Alliance Resource Partners a Buy After Massive Out-Performance?

    By Peter Epstein - April 16, 2013 | Tickers: ARLP, ANR, KOL, NRP, BTU

    I've written several articles on coal Master Limited Partnership Alliance Resource Partners, LP (NASDAQ: ARLP) here on TMF. Late last year I opined that Alliance and Natural Resource Partners, LP (NYSE: NRP)were over sold due to fiscal cliff fears. In the past 12 months, Alliance's units are up ~20% while the Market Vectors Coal ETF, (NYSEMKT: KOL) is down close to 25%. Does this substantial out-performance mean more »

  • Just Give Me Flat Gold Demand as Supply Falters

    By Peter Epstein - April 14, 2013 | Tickers: ANV, ABX, NEM, GLD

    Wild Gold Price Swings Divorced From Supply / Demand Considerations

    On Friday, April 12th, gold prices fell more than $80 per ounce to about $1,480. The sell-off, (some called it panicked, some said it was capitulation) means that in technical terms gold has, "broken down." I am not a big fan of technical analysis. I have no idea where gold is headed next. 

    Over a longer period, I believe that more »

  • Alliance Resource Partners, a Safe Coal Play

    By Peter Epstein - April 14, 2013 | Tickers: ARLP, ANR, KOL, NRP, BTU

    Is Alliance Resource Partners a Buy After Massive Out-performance?   

    I've written several articles on coal Master Limited Partnership Alliance Resource Partners, LP (NASDAQ: ARLP) here on TMF and on Seekingalpha. Late last year I opined that Alliance and Natural Resource Partners, LP (NYSE: NRP)were over sold due to fiscal cliff fears. In the past 12 months, Alliance's units are is UP ~20% while the Market Vectors Coal more »

  • As Gold Prices Fall, Should Investors Panic?

    By Peter Epstein - April 12, 2013 | Tickers: ANV, AU, CDE, CORVF

    Gold prices are down 8% year to date. That may look horrible when compared to the S&P500 Index, which is up about 12%. But these are entirely seperate asset classes, and there's room for both in one's portfolio. Let's figure out what an 8% sell-off truly means for junior gold companies.

    Does an 8% Drop Signal the End?

    Today's price of $1,565 per ounce more »

  • Coking Coal Fundamentals Remain in the Dumps

    By Peter Epstein - April 12, 2013 | Tickers: ANR, BTU, WLT

    Coking Coal Prices Have Most Likely Bottomed, Now What?

    Analysts and pundits, including a handful of equity research analysts, point to a bottoming of coking coal prices as a positive indicator. Some suggest this bottoming marks the time to be bullish on coal stocks as the worst is behind them. I disagree. The coal stocks are dead money for at least the next 3-6 months. Nothing good is happening and more »

  • Iron Ore Producers' Outlook Remains Bleak

    By Peter Epstein - April 11, 2013 | Tickers: AMI, CLF, FMG, LOND, TCK

    As I’ve posted from time to time over the past few months, iron ore prices are under pressure. Morgan Stanley is the latest voice to say that iron ore prices are headed materially lower by the end of this year, calling for a price of $90 per metric tonne. That compares to current spot prices around $133 per tonne. Iron ore prices fell to about $87 per tonne in more »

  • Uranium Sector Update, Interest Building?

    By Peter Epstein - April 9, 2013 | Tickers: ESOFD, ARVCF.PK, BHP, CCJ, EFRFF, FSSIF, RIO, SXRZF.PK

    I think we're seeing an increase in institutional interest in the Uranium sector amid M&A activity and excitement over recent exploration success in Canada. Acquisitions including Denison Mines' (NYSEMKT: DNN) pending takeover of Fission Energy and Russia's ARMZ acquiring Uranium One, are prime examples. On the exploration front, Fission Energy and Alpha Minerals have received an enormous amount of attention for discoveries at Patterson Lake South in more »

  • Iron Ore Market Reported to be in Trouble

    By Peter Epstein - April 7, 2013 | Tickers: AMI, BHP, CLF, VALE, FMG, LOND, RIO, TCK

    As I’ve posted from time to time over the past few months, iron ore prices are under pressure. Morgan Stanley is the latest voice to say that iron ore prices are headed materially lower by the end of this year, calling for a price of $90 per metric tonne. That compares to current spot prices around $133 per tonne. Iron ore prices fell to about $87 per tonne in more »

  • Coking Coal Fundamentals Remain in the Dumps

    By Peter Epstein - April 7, 2013 | Tickers: ANR, BTU, WLT

    The News in the Coking Coal Space Remains Horrible

    Analysts and pundits, including a handful of equity research analysts, point to a bottoming of coking coal prices as a positive indicator. Some suggest this bottoming marks the time to be bullish on coal stocks as the worst is behind them. I disagree. The coal stocks are dead money for at least the next 3-6 months. Nothing good is happening and more »

  • Reading Between the Lines of PotashCorp's Pursuit of Israel Chemicals

    By Peter Epstein - March 26, 2013 | Tickers: AGU, BHP, POT, MOS

    Why is PotashCorp looking to Israel for growth?

    I find it very interesting that PotashCorp (NYSE: POT) is looking to acquire more potash production in Israel, not in its home base of Saskatchewan. The proposed deal in Israel is not especially cheap for PotashCorp. Yet, the company is choosing this option over acquiring any of the three emerging potash producers in the province, Karnalyte Resources, Ecanto Potash, and Western Potash more »

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