Calla Hummel

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  • Buy into Petrobras' Collapse

    By Calla Hummel - March 3, 2013 | Tickers: PBR

    Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR) has fallen hard. In 2008, the company was the global stock market’s emerging market poster child, a successful private-public venture sitting on the largest oil reserves discovered in the Americas in recent decades.

    Over the last two years, the company’s share price has done a slow motion tumble from $50, hitting a new low of $14.60 this week. Investors have dumped the stock more »

  • Dividend Stocks Trump Foreign Bonds

    By Calla Hummel - March 1, 2013 | Tickers: SAN, BSAC, KO, VIV

    Traditionally, investors put money into stocks for capital appreciation and invest in bonds for income with capital preservation. Financial advisers routinely recommend investing in both stocks and bonds, a strategy that proved particularly prudent over the last 30 years, when bonds outperformed stocks. However, for those of us building our portfolios now, low interest rates make bonds look only marginally more attractive than a savings account. Low interest rates have more »

  • Gap Set to Lose in 2013

    By Calla Hummel - February 25, 2013 | Tickers: GPS, NKE

    In 2012, Gap (NYSE: GPS) gave shareholders a staggering 67% return. While Gap’s share price soared, the company’s international operations delivered a disappointing 3% decrease in sales in 2012, adding to 2011’s woeful 7% decrease. With Gap’s big plans for 2013 focused on international expansion, I expect that international sales will continue to underperform and in the process, undermine Gap’s 2013 performance.

    Plans

    Gap has more »

  • Don't Buy Market Optimism for this Stock

    By Calla Hummel - February 20, 2013 | Tickers: DMD, GOOG

    If you bought Demand Media (NYSE: DMD) shares on Tuesday’s pre-earnings dip, congratulations! With Wednesday’s 9% pop, now may be a great time to sell. If Demand Media is on your watch list, resist the urge to buy now. I present three reasons that I chalk up Demand Media’s pop as market over-exuberance and why the company’s business model relies on similar questionable strategies even with more »

  • Did Apple Just Lose this Foreign Market?

    By Calla Hummel - February 15, 2013 | Tickers: AAPL | Editor's Choice

    Any upscale café in São Paulo or Rio features young professionals on MacBooks and businessmen showing off their iPhones. Despite stalled GDP growth, Brazil is a growing market for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) products; so much so that the swelling professional class has been shelling out $1,200 for new iPhone 5s – and that’s the price with a contract. But on Thursday, Brazil’s intellectual property authority, INPI, announced that more »

  • Go Buy a House

    By Calla Hummel - February 4, 2013 | Tickers: KKR, BX

    Five years after the subprime mortgage fiasco, the housing market has finally bottomed out. Accordingly, business news has been a-buzz with individuals and companies buying up houses to hold, flip, and, increasingly, rent. Warren Buffett was quoted wishing he could buy up hundreds of thousands of single family homes. For those of us without enough cash, expertise, or the oodles of time required for house flipping or becoming a landlord more »

  • Apple Is Valued like an Oil Company

    By Calla Hummel - February 4, 2013 | Tickers: AAPL, CAT, XOM, GM

    Comparing different companies’ price to earnings ratios is usually only useful within industries. Some industries are cyclical, some industries are carried by a few growth stories, and some see most profits from unevenly spaced long term investments. The technology industry is known for sky high P/E's, while the cyclical mining and industrial manufacturing industries are known for single digit P/E's. To put Apple’s (NASDAQ: AAPLmore »)

  • Why is Craft Brew Alliance Jumping Around?

    By Calla Hummel - February 2, 2013 | Tickers: BUD, BREW

    Craft Brewers Alliance (NASDAQ: BREW) has been swinging around this week. Craft Brewers Alliance’s share price went up 6% on Tuesday, dropped 3% Wednesday and Thursday and popped back up 4% Friday, to finish the week out up 9%. While small caps are known for swings, Craft Brewers Alliance’s beta -- a measure of share price volatility -- is .89, meaning that its price tends to fluctuate less than the more »

  • One Way Not to Chase Yield

    By Calla Hummel - January 22, 2013 | Tickers: SAN, KO, PBR

    In a climate of record low interest rates, investors are hungry for yield. The domestic bond market’s bull years have pushed yields on some domestic bonds below inflation, and investors have increasingly looked to riskier asset classes such as foreign sovereign debt. The appetite for bond yield regardless of risk has enabled tiny and poor Paraguay to enter the bond market for the first time, with 10 year bonds more »

  • Can Brazil Break the Wealth Destruction Cycle in 2013?

    By Calla Hummel - January 8, 2013 | Tickers: ABV, VALE, EWZ, PBR

    Even with less than 1% growth in 2012, Brazil has had a good decade. Its main exports reached record highs, hyperinflation is history, and macroeconomic strength has given successive administrations the budget leeway to help lift 30 million Brazilians out of poverty. Betting on a robust future, investors have poured money into the country's stock market. If Brazil keeps growing, long- and medium-term investors stand to gain. But the more »

  • Craft Brew Alliance 2013 Preview

    By Calla Hummel - December 31, 2012 | Tickers: BUD, SAM, BREW

    Craft Brew Alliance (NASDAQ: BREW) had a choppy and lackluster 2012, giving up midyear gains of 45% to end the year up a modest 8%. In the first half of 2012, CBA’s share price soared on big earnings gains, margin and sales improvements, and a catchy ticker change. In August, the company reported earnings misses and in November revised its 2012 EPS guidance down by half. Shares plunged accordingly more »

  • Invest Like a Bro

    By Calla Hummel - December 31, 2012 | Tickers: CARZ, HOTT, TAP, PEP

    Bros are there for you, man. Particularly at this time of year, it’s one of your bros who will meet you at the bar when you’ve overloaded on family, or watch a game with you stranded in your snowed-in, small-town hometown. You can always count on your bros, and you probably wish you could count on your portfolio in a similar way. Yet bros, like portfolios, can be more »

  • Invest Like a Hipster

    By Calla Hummel - December 28, 2012 | Tickers: BREW, INDY, PBR, URBN | Editor's Choice

    Hipsters get a lot of flak for being jaded consumers cannibalizing past generations’ creativity. Regardless of your animosity towards or uncomfortable resemblance to the constantly changing hipster stereotype, we all admit that this group of twenty-something wannabes is on top of nearly every consumer trend in the country. Remember when you made fun of your awkwardly sarcastic cousin for wearing grandma’s 1950s era glasses? Every designer has since put more »

  • Will Omission Beer Bubble Over or Fizz Out?

    By Calla Hummel - December 28, 2012 | Tickers: BUD, SAM, BREW | Editor's Choice

    The number of breweries in the United States has exploded from a few hundred in 1980 to over 2100 in 2012 – and the craft segment has enjoyed years of 15% growth while the overall beer market declines. But as craft offerings increase exponentially, commentators remark that the segment is saturated with options. Those comments are increasingly directed at Craft Brew Alliance (NASDAQ: BREW) and Boston Beer Co (NYSE: SAM), companies more »

  • Year in Review: Craft Brew Alliance

    By Calla Hummel - December 27, 2012 | Tickers: BUD, BREW

    Craft Brew Alliance's (NASDAQ: BREW) year can be split into two parts: the part where everything went well, and the part where everything sputtered. In 2011, CBA shares popped on rumors that Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) would buy the company. Instead, the beer giant bought the Fulton Street Brewery, a relatively small holding of CBA, handing CBA a nice $16.3 million and cheaper margin fees for beer distributed through more »

  • The World Cup Will Not Drive Brazil's Growth

    By Calla Hummel - December 20, 2012 | Tickers: ABV, GOL, EWZ

    Despite a disappointing year for Brazilian stocks, bulls on Brazilian growth abound. Since the 1970s, bulls have pointed to breakout years, a growing middle class, and a young and increasingly educated population as reasons to invest in the country. In the past two years, commentators blithely toss out the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics as reasons in and of themselves to invest in Brazil, or as drivers of more »

  • Investing in Brazil for all the Wrong Reasons

    By Calla Hummel - December 18, 2012 | Tickers: ABV, VALE, EWZ, PBR | Editor's Choice

    Seeking Alpha published An overly optimistic piece on Brazilian stocks last week and listed the main Brazilian ETF as a defensive move, just as The Washington Post and CNN mulled over mediocre news from Latin America’s biggest economy. Brazilian stocks have floundered in 2012 with falling profits, low growth, and rising inflation. Despite low returns, Brazilian stocks are not cheap by most metrics and macroeconomic indicators are mixed on more »

  • Extractive Industries Under the Mother Earth Law

    By Calla Hummel - November 5, 2012 | Tickers: PBR, PKX, REPYY.PK | Editor's Choice

    Corporate personhood is highly controversial in the United States, but corporations are not legally treated as citizens. What if the government extended full rights to a nonhuman? That is exactly what Bolivia’s government did in October, when it signed the Law of Mother Earth (full title, click for full text in Spanish: Ley Marco de La Madre Tierra y Desarrollo Integral para Vivir Bien). The law gives nature, writ more »

  • Stay Away from Emerging Market Debt

    By Calla Hummel - October 22, 2012 | Tickers: KO, ABV, PBR

    Bolivia and Paraguay are enigmatic countries full of deeply introspective and articulate people. Both countries will begin selling debt on the international bond market within a year, at around the startlingly low rate of 4.7%. Both countries have detailed plans for taking advantage of historically low rates and putting the proceeds towards much-needed infrastructure projects. However, unless you get deep enjoyment from taking huge risks for small yields, stay more »

  • Are Brazilian Banks Approaching a Credit Boom?

    By Calla Hummel - October 22, 2012 | Tickers: BBD, BSBR, ITUB

    Brazilian banks have been left out of the international bank rally over the past few months. The reason? Brazilian bureaucrats united over aggressive interest rate cuts, which have taken away Brazilian banks’ biggest cash cow -- exorbitant consumer interest rates -- just as default rates started rising.  But new documents from the government reveal that a new credit expansion based on quality instead of quantity could be just around the corner. Should more »

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